The WTO and UNCTAD publish their reports on world trade in 2025 and the outlook for 2026.
Leading global trade organisations, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and UNCTAD, have issued their October outlook reports, offering a two-speed picture: an unexpectedly strong first half of 2025, driven by technology, followed by a sharp slowdown in 2026 due to fragmentation and political tensions. The key message of both reports is the same: this year, trade has found new avenues for growth, but geopolitical headwinds and protectionism are about to take a heavy toll.
The $500 Billion Push: The AI Effect
UNCTAD in its ‘Global Trade Update’ and the WTO in its ‘World Trade Outlook and Statistics’ agree that trade expanded in value by about $500 billion in the first half of 2025. This has led UNCTAD to raise its total value growth projection for 2025 to +3.7%.
This leap is explained by two phenomena:
- The Artificial Intelligence (AI) Driver: According to the WTO, demand for key digital infrastructure products, such as semiconductors, servers and telecommunications equipment, has been the main driver. Trade in these AI-related products contributed to almost half of the total merchandise trade expansion in the first half of the year.
- Anticipating Tariffs: In the case of merchandise volumes, the WTO has noted strong growth of +4.9% y-o-y in the first half of the year, driven by companies bringing forward their imports (especially in North America) to avoid the entry into force of the tariffs imposed by the US.
Growth Led by Services and Emerging Economies
Meanwhile, Trade in Services continues to show great strength, with a forecast of +7.0% in 2025 for total value, although UNCTAD anticipates a progressive moderation of the rate of commercial services exports to +4.6%.
Moreover, the trend towards asymmetric globalisation is evident.
South-South trade (between developing economies) grew by a remarkable +8% in the first half of the year, confirming that emerging economies now drive 50% of global growth and are a key diversification factor.
The Brake of 2026: Slowdown Turns to Paralysis
The Brake of 2026: Slowdown Turns to Paralysis
But if 2025 will be a year of rebound due to inertia and technology, 2026 looks set to be a year of sharp adjustment.
The WTO has drastically cut its forecast for the volume of world merchandise trade in 2026 from 1.8% to a minimal +0.5%. This near standstill forecast is due to:
- Full Impact of Barriers: Full implementation of the announced restrictive and tariff measures in 2025 will have a delayed and severe impact in 2026.
- Geopolitical volatility: Political uncertainty and persistent volatility in energy markets will continue to dampen investment and long-term confidence.
- GDP adjustment: Global GDP growth is expected to decelerate slightly from 2.7% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026, which will limit import demand.
UNCTAD also projects a sharp slowdown in total trade value to +2.4% in 2026, with downside risks if geopolitical fragmentation intensifies.
Conclusion
The WTO and UNCTAD reports provide the most authoritative global macroeconomic outlook and send a clear signal: resilience in 2025 should not breed complacency. AI has provided a temporary cushion, but the threat of fragmentation (evidenced by phenomena such as nearshoring and the rise of regional blocs) is real in 2026.
To mitigate risk, it is vital to link RRI (Regulation of Artificial Intelligence) with trade policies. A commitment to digital services and green trade may be the key strategy for economies to move forward in this new paradigm of asymmetric globalisation and low growth.
The official reports from both agencies can be found at the following links:
UNCTAD: Global Trade Update October 2025 – https://unctad.org/publication/global-trade-update-october-2025
OMC: Perspectivas del Comercio Mundial –https://www.wto.org/spanish/news_s/news25_s/stat_07oct25_s.htm
Video presentación del Informe de la OMC –
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9DG3herUGA