In a movement that redefines alliances in Latin America, President Donald Trump signed this Thursday (November 20) an executive order that drastically reduces tariffs on Brazilian agricultural imports, exempting key sectors such as soy, meat and coffee worth an estimated $12 billion a year.

This decision not only alleviates inflationary pressure in the U.S. (where food prices have fueled criticism of the Trump administration) but positions Brazil as a strategic actor in the escalation of the trade war between Washington and Beijing.

As we pointed out last week in our weekly trade geopolitics news («From Bananas to Fertilizers: How Russia Turns Trade into Geopolitical Weapons in Latin America»), Brazil is consolidating itself as a key element not only for Russia and the other BRICS members but as an indispensable bridge in the bipolar board between superpowers.

With China centralizing 80% of Brazilian soybean exports this year 2025 (with a record 82 million tons), and the US. Competing for its influence in the southern hemisphere, Brazil is no longer a mere commodity exporter: it is becoming an indispensable bridge, and a possible battleground, between the two superpowers.

The US decision this week marks a pragmatic turn after months of tensions, but is this a victory for Lula or a bait to get Brazil out of China’s orbit?

Trump’s Turn: From Political Punishment to Tactical Alliance

The executive order modifies the imposition of 40% tariffs established in July this year, which has resulted in an estimated $18.4 billion impact on bilateral trade and significantly affecting agro-industry.

The US now points to «progress in negotiations» and «domestic demand» to eliminate or reduce tariffs on products such as beef (Brazil supplies 20% of the US market), coffee (33% of US imports), soy and tropical fruits; directly benefiting US importers in a context of food inflation that is eroding Trump’s domestic image.

Brazil’s Strategic Role: Between Chinese Soy and American Meat

But the background is geopolitical: with the US-China trade war in its most intense phase, Washington sees in Brazil a counterweight to Chinese influence in Latin America.

Brazil is not a passive spectator.

In 2025, its agricultural exports to China reached $16 billion in the first nine months, with soybeans as the star product (77 million tons shipped to Beijing). This is 10.7% above historical averages, driven by China’s diversification from US 25-100% tariffs on US agricultural goods.

The impact is clear: while US soybean exports to China fell by 73% in 2025, Brazil captured 80% of the Chinese market.

This mutual dependence strengthens diplomatic ties: Lula has supported China in multilateral forums, and Beijing has invested $10 billion in Brazilian infrastructure this year.

However, this new measure opens a window for the US: Brazil exports $ 12 billion in agri-food products to Washington, and this «truce» could raise that figure by 15-20% in 2026

Voices of the Front: Lula, Trump and the Chinese Echo

President Lula welcomed the measure as «a step in the right direction», but warned that: «Brazil does not choose sides; we export sovereignty, not loyalty».

While from Washington, Trump tweeted: Great deal with Brazil! We lower prices for Americans and strengthen ties against unfair competition. America First, but with friends!».

While on the other hand in Beijing, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded cautiously stating «We support free trade and Brazil-China relations remain intact»..

Towards a New Balance: Ally or Neutral?

In short, Brazil gains room for manoeuvre: exports to both sides, but its south-south alignment with China makes it a geostrategic asset.

This new US strategy does not solve the trade war, but it illustrates how Brazil navigates chaos: from victim of political tariffs to arbitrator in the commodity dispute.

«As Trump focuses on his war, Brazil and China forge deeper ties».