This week, China has moved masterfully: Prime Minister Li Qiang announced the «International Initiative for Economic and Trade Cooperation in Green Mining and Minerals» during the G20 Summit in Johannesburg.

This pact, which unites 19 developing countries with an epicenter in Africa and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), is not a mere trade agreement. It is a master move to consolidate Chinese dominance in a market valued at $20 billion annually, projected to triple by 2040, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

In a world where the U.S. and the EU struggle to diversify supplies, Beijing transforms its 90% monopoly on global rare earth refining into a network of alliances that positions the Global South as a geopolitical counterweight.

From the perspective of commercial geostrategy, this initiative represents a paradigm shift.

China, historically accused of using its mineral reserves as a weapon in the trade war with the West-recall the export restrictions of October 2025 that skyrocketed prices by 30%-is now shifting its strategy towards inclusive diplomacy.

By inviting nations like Nigeria, Zimbabwe and Indonesia into a bloc that covers 40% of the reserves not controlled by traditional powers, Beijing not only ensures stable flows of raw materials; it dilutes the narrative of «toxic dependence» and stands as a champion of equity in the green transition.

It is a mineral «soft power»: instead of coercion, it offers technology transfer and local refining, attracting African countries tired of being mere exporters of crude mineral.

The Geostrategic Board: Africa as a Chinese Stronghold

Africa, with its 30% of global reserves of critical minerals but only 10% of refining capacity, emerges as the focus of this strategy.

Nigeria, with 22 million tonnes of rare earths in the Niger delta, and Zimbabwe, rich in lithium and neodymium in Bikita, are the first to join. These countries, hit by price volatility and mining pollution, see the initiative as a route to sovereign industrialization.

Beijing promises to invest in processing plants-estimated at up to $5 billion over three years-and clean technologies to mitigate environmental impacts.

Geostrategically, this counteracts Western advances. US, has allocated $ 369 billion to diversification, with projects such as Mrima Hill in Kenya. And the EU, for its part, has signed a pact with South Africa on «ethical» supply chains.

But the Chinese strategy is more ambitious: by joining forces with the enlarged BRICS, Beijing creates a «southern bloc» that challenges Western domination. It is an echo of the Mineral Silk Road that already started in 2024, with an agreement with Zimbabwe, but now climbing to the multilateral level.

The Importance of Chinese Leadership: An Axis in the Global Geostrategy

The geostrategic relevance of this movement transcends trade; it redefines power in the era of decarbonization.

China, which refines 90% of the rare earths-essential for Tesla batteries, Lockheed Martin missiles and wind turbines-uses this initiative to shield its hegemony without isolation. By empowering the Global South with local refinement (complete value chain: exploration, processing, recycling), Beijing mitigates risks of western boycotts and fosters loyalties.

While for Africa, it means a jump in GDP: the IEA estimates that local refining could add $50 billion annually to the continent by 2030, reducing the «curse of resources».While for Africa, it means a jump in GDP: the IEA estimates that local refining could add $50 billion annually to the continent by 2030, reducing the «curse of resources».

Por tanto, la iniciativa china acelera la fragmentación: un mundo bipolar de suministros, donde el Sur Global elige bandos. Mientras que para Pekín, es una victoria: asegura demanda para su exceso de capacidad (China produce 240.000 toneladas anuales de tierras raras) y posiciona al yuan en transacciones mineras, erosionando el dólar.

Ultimately, China’s leadership on this issue is not just commercial; it is existential.

Controlling rare earths is controlling the future: from AI to defense.

By leading an inclusive bloc, Beijing not only secures supplies; it dictates terms in a multipolar world.

For more details, see the official links:

Ministerio de Comercio de China: Anuncio de la Iniciativa

Declaración del G20 sobre Minerales Críticos

UNIDO: Rol en Cooperación Minera Verde