In the shadows of the war in Ukraine and global rivalry with the West, Russia has found in such everyday commodities as Ecuadorian bananas and fertilisers for Brazilian soybeans a subtle but effective arsenal to expand its influence in Latin America.   

What looks like ordinary trade is, in reality, a calculated strategy of economic coercion that creates asymmetric dependencies and forces regional governments to reconsider alliances with the United States.

This tactic, detailed in a comprehensive analysis published this week by Diálogo Político, reveals how Moscow transforms natural resources into political instruments to redraw the map of power in the southern hemisphere.

Political Dialogue's report, entitled “Festivals and Fertilisers: The Instruments of Russian Projection in Latin America” and dated 10 November 2025, breaks down how Russia capitalises on economic vulnerabilities to align Latin American countries with its anti-Western agenda.

Based on the Russian Federation's Foreign Policy 2023, the approach prioritises support for nations “under pressure from the US”, expanded trade ties and investment in key sectors, all framed within forums such as the BRICS, the G20 and the Russia-CELAC Dialogue Mechanism.

‘Natural resources are used as a political instrument to negotiate supplies in asymmetric economic relations, thus exerting political influence on the future’.,

warns the analysis, citing how Moscow builds enduring loyalties without resorting to direct military intervention.

Banana Embargo: A Direct Blow to Ecuador

The most emblematic case is that of Ecuador, the world's largest banana exporter, whose industry generates thousands of jobs and an annual flow of $800 million to Russia alone.

In February 2024, Moscow suddenly suspended imports, citing alleged health breaches (a recurring pretext in its diplomatic arsenal) similar to that used against Moldovan or Georgian wines for their alignment with the West.

The trigger: President Daniel Noboa's announcement to transfer obsolete Soviet military equipment to the US for use in Ukraine in exchange for support against domestic drug trafficking.

The reaction was immediate and devastating. Companies such as Reybanpac and Dole, which dominate the Ecuadorian market, saw their revenues threatened, while the sector (which contributes 10% of national GDP) faced imminent collapse. Ecuador was quick to cave in: it withdrew from the agreement with Washington, arguing that it did not want to ‘get involved in distant conflicts’.

The embargo was lifted shortly afterwards, but the message stuck: any flirtation with the US could cost access to vital markets.

As Diálogo Político notes, “Russia knows how to use other natural resources as a political instrument”, turning bananas into an “opportunity to tie target countries into an asymmetric economic relationship”.

Brazil: Fertiliser Discounts as a Neutrality Hook

Further south, in Brazil (the region's agro-industrial powerhouse; responsible for 14 per cent of the world's food production and a third of its GDP) Russia is deploying a strategy of “carrot” rather than “stick”.

Desde la invasión a Ucrania en 2022, Moscú ha incrementado su cuota en el mercado de fertilizantes brasileños, suministrando más del 25% de los insumos químicos esenciales para cultivos como soja, maíz y café.

Rusia, en un movimiento astuto, ofreció descuentos del 20-30% en potasio y nitrato de amonio, evadiendo sanciones occidentales y posicionando a Rusia como proveedor indispensable. Mientras que Brasil, consciente de los riesgos para su seguridad alimentaria, presionó exitosamente en 2022 para excluir los fertilizantes de las sanciones globales.

The country applies a pragmatic neutrality that allows it to import at competitive prices. In 2023, Russian purchases reached record levels, tying Brazil's agro-industrial exporter (key to Chinese and US markets) to Moscow's stability.

This asymmetric dependence gives Russia a strategic advantage at international summits, where Brazil and Russia coordinate against “Western hegemonism”, according to Diálogo Político's analysis.

A Network of Influence: From Festivals to Key Supply Control

But the Russian offensive is not limited to the economic sphere. The Fourth Annual Latin American and Caribbean Festival in Moscow, 19-27 July 2025, disguised cultural diplomacy with gastronomy and dance, but served to consolidate commercial ties.

The implications are alarming:

‘Russia's control of key supplies and strong presence in regional food production allows it to create lasting dependencies, through which it exerts strategic influence over Latin American politics, thus attempting to integrate the region into its global agenda,’ the report concludes.

Countries such as Ecuador and Brazil, caught up in these dynamics, could moderate their support for Ukraine in future UN votes or hemispheric summits, fracturing regional cohesion and complicating US strategy to counter China and Russia in its “backyard”.

Bilateral trade with Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) represents only 2% of Russia's total, but its impact lies in precision: focused on vulnerable commodities that generate immediate pressures on economic elites and governments.

In a world of trade fragmentation, Latin America cannot afford to be a pawn: economic sovereignty is, today more than ever, a matter of geopolitical survival.

🔗 Official Links and Links of Interest:

Main article:Festivales y fertilizantes: los instrumentos de la proyección rusa en América Latina» – Diálogo Político. (10 de noviembre de 2025).

Política Exterior de Rusia 2023: Kremlin oficial.

Datos sobre fertilizantes y comercio: Parlamento Europeo (informe 2024).