1. China's economic policy and its global impact

China is strengthening its manufacturing capacity as the core of its economic strategy, supported by fiscal and monetary stimuli to boost consumption and investment. However, the decline in domestic demand has led to increased competition in exports, creating downward pressure on global prices. 

• Global Impact: China's industrial capacity directly affects strategic sectors worldwide. Emerging countries fear that the so-called "China shocks" could undermine their industrialization efforts, while advanced economies seek to reduce their indirect dependence on the Asian giant through diversification strategies
• Trade conflicts: In 2025, China will be ready to respond more forcefully to the expected trade restrictions from the U.S., intensifying a confrontation that will drag third countries and key sectors into a 'trade war.

 What does this mean for companies? 

Trade with China could become more complicated, especially in sensitive sectors such as semiconductors. Additionally, the diversification measures adopted by other countries, such as nearshoring or 'de-risking' in supply chains, will reflect a growing mistrust towards dependence on China

2. The protectionism of the United States

The trade policy of the United States in 2025 will revolve around protectionism, driven by a strong dollar and an 'economic strategy' focused on protecting key industries and safeguarding national security. This will involve tools such as tariffs, export controls, and investment scrutiny. 

• Global Impact: Foreign investment control and technological regulations will become increasingly stringent, forcing foreign companies to adapt to a complex and changing regulatory environment.

• Trade Conflicts: Tariff increases targeting strategic sectors such as technology could trigger trade reprisals that affect global trade. These trade tensions will be exacerbated by the strengthening of the dollar and technological restrictions

What does this mean for companies? 

Multinational companies will need to analyze their supply chains and global operations through the lens of U.S. policy. Identifying potential vulnerabilities and preparing responses to regulatory changes will be crucial to maintaining competitiveness in a protectionist environment. 

3. The rise of global industrial policies

In 2025, industrial policies will become a key tool for governments, used both to protect strategic sectors and to gain an advantage in global technological competition. 

• Global Impact: State intervention will cover sensitive sectors such as advanced technology, digitalized infrastructure, and essential services

• Trade Conflicts: These policies will not only reshape strategic supply chains but also impact technological options, aligning them with national security interests.

 What does this mean for companies? 

Understanding how public policies will affect market access will be key. Companies will need to leverage these policies to identify opportunities, such as tax benefits or exceptions on tariffs and export controls. In 2025, reviewing technological options from a geopolitical perspective will be essential for both countries and companies.